PLAY AUDIO here.
Manil Suri and Daniel Morgan are an unusual team: Manil is a mathematics professor and author (of both fiction and nonfiction), while Daniel is a physician and professor of epidemiology, public health, and infectious diseases. But — in what they say is a typical “Smalltimore” moment — both a neighbor and a student had told them they should work together because of a shared interest in false positives on diagnostics tests. The result was a recent First Opinion essay, “Diagnostic tests for rare conditions present a mathematical conundrum,” in which they write about how the more rare a disease ease, the more likely a test will return a false positive.
On this episode of the “First Opinion Podcast,” I spoke with Manil and Daniel about how false positives can cause major problems, how both physicians and patients misunderstand statistics, and how their work plays out in their own lives.
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Manil imagined a test for a rare condition: “If you tested 20,000 people, only one person would actually have that condition. But remember, if you have a 1% false positive rate, then out of 20,200 people, that is 1% will test positive. And so out of that 200 people, only one person will actually have the disease,” he said. For the other 199, the result may be devastating for no good reason.
Daniel has created a website, TestingWisely.com, where you can learn about how to think through diagnostic testing in a more practical way.
Be sure to sign up for the weekly “First Opinion Podcast” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play, or wherever you get your podcasts. And don’t forget to sign up for the First Opinion newsletter to read each week’s best First Opinion essays.
A 5-part docu-series from Holocaust Survivor Vera Sherav is now available in it’s entirety on CHD.TV.
Those….responsible for the pandemic have used two of the weapons that the Nazis used….fear and propaganda.
-Vera Sherav, Holocaust Survivor
You can also watch each section individually:
Part 1: Here We Go Again On Steroids
Part 2: Anyone Who Wants To Start A War Has To Lie
Part 3: Breaking The Veil Of The Real Conspirators
Part 4: This Time Around We’re All Jews
Part 5: Never Give In – Never Give Up
abstract
Systemic mast cell activation disease (MCAD) comprises disorders characterized by an enhanced release of mast cell mediators accompanied by accumulation of dysfunctional mast cells. Demonstration of familial clustering would be an important step towards defining the genetic contribution to the risk of systemic MCAD. The present study aimed to quantify familial aggregation for MCAD and to investigate the variability of clinical and molecular findings (e.g. somatic mutations in KIT) among affected family members in three selected pedigrees. Our data suggest that systemic MCAD pedigrees include more systemic MCAD cases than would be expected by chance, i.e., compared with the prevalence of MCAD in the general population. The prevalence of MCAD suspected by symptom self-report in first-degree relatives of patients with MCAD amounted to approximately 46%, compared to prevalence in the general German population of about 17% (p<0.0001). In three families with a high familial loading of MCAD, the subtype of MCAD and the severity of mediator-related symptoms varied between family members. In addition, genetic alterations detected in KIT were variable, and included mutations at position 816 of the amino acid sequence. In conclusion, our data provide evidence for common familial occurrence of MCAD. Our findings observed in the three pedigrees together with recent reports in the literature suggest that, in familial cases (i.e., in the majority of MCAD), mutated disease-related operator and/or regulator genes could be responsible for the development of somatic mutations in KIT and other proteins important for the regulation of mast cell activity. Accordingly, the immunohistochemically different subtypes of MCAD (i.e. mast cell activation syndrome and systemic mastocytosis) should be more accurately regarded as varying presentations of a common generic root process of mast cell dysfunction, than as distinct diseases.
related article excerpt
More Common Than It Seems
... more
How Massaging Your Calves Can Strengthen Your Heart (4 Easy Exercises)
Heart Health
Etsuko Katahira
Etsuko Katahira
Jun 1 2022
biggersmaller
How Massaging Your Calves Can Strengthen Your Heart (4 Easy Exercises)
Editor’s note: The calves are the driving force behind blood circulation, helping the venous blood flow back to the heart. If the calves are stiff, the blood will not be able to return to the heart. This article introduces four types of massage and exercise methods which use calf movements to help with the smooth flow of blood and body fluids, thus rendering the heart stronger.
Calves are Vascular Pumps to Help Blood Flow Back to the Heart
The blood sent from the heart transports nutrients and oxygen through the blood vessels to the microvasculature throughout the body. During the process, a portion of the blood leaks out of the blood vessels to replenish nutrients for the cells of the subcutaneous tissues and to absorb the waste materials and carbon dioxide, and it then reenters the blood vessels and flows back to the heart. This process takes about 60 seconds, and this cycle will continue as long as the person is alive.
The blood vessels that transport blood from the heart are arteries, and the vessels that return blood to the heart are veins.
The arteries use the heart as a pump, supplying blood at a fixed speed, and the blood flows together to the extremities of the body.
The arteries don’t have to work on their own, as the heart is a pump that helps send blood throughout the body.
So, what is the pump that helps the blood flow from the veins back to the heart? It is the calf muscles.
When the calf muscles are tightened, they will compress the veins that return the blood to the heart from the muscles. You can think of this process as pressing the pump with both hands when filling the tires of a bicycle with air. When standing, the blood in the veins will flow from the bottom to the top, and there are valves inside the veins to prevent backflow.
In modern times, many people don’t have a large physical workload, so they must use some methods to promote the operation of the venous valves to maintain balance.
The following are three methods to massage the calf muscles.
... more
findings in his latest video.
8 of 8 15/12/2022, 09:02
Too big for one blog post.
cont....
Over the following years, Daszak and his Chinese colleague Shi Zhengli, also known as the “bat woman” or “bat lady,” would discover and isolate more than 100 unique coronaviruses all of which, according to Daszak’s own words, can be easily manipulated in the lab.
A copy of a 2015 presentation given by Daszakto the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine showed EcoHealth Alliance’s work in collaboration with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which was funded by various US agencies. The research involved infections in humanised mice and coronavirus gain-of-function research using human ACE2 receptors, the protein on the surface of a cell to which the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binds.
As additional proof of the funding behind his research, at the end of Daszak’s 2011 article, it stated the organisations that funded Daszak and his co-author’s, Dr. Lipkin, research:
Peter Daszak’s work is supported by NIAIDNon-biodefense emerging infectious disease research opportunities award 1 R01 AI079231, an NIH/NSF‘Ecology of Infectious Diseases’ award from the Fogarty International Centre 2R01-TW005869, the Rockefeller Foundation, Google.org, NSF Human and Social Dynamics ‘Agents of Change’ award (SES-HSD-AOC BCS–0826779), and generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT. The contents are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Dr. Lipkin’s work is supported bygrants from the National Institutes of Health(AI057158, AI0793231, AI070411, EY017404), Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID PREDICT, and Defence Threat Reductions Agency. [emphasis our own]
The search for meaning in virus discovery, ScienceDirect, December 2011
In May 2012, the Global Vaccine Action Plan 2011-2020was approved to achieve the Gates Foundation’s “decade of vaccines” vision. The Plan was led by the Gates Foundation, GAVI, WHO, UNICEF, African Leaders Malaria Alliance and the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (“NIAID”).
Further resources:
In 2013, the Technical Advisory Group (“TAG”) on Vaccine-preventable Diseasesreleased a paper from a meeting with the slogan “vaccination a shared responsibility.” The meeting’s objective was to issue recommendations to address the current and future challenges faced by national immunisation programs in the Americas. Part of the 2013 TAG team were representatives from the National Centre for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases (“NCIRD”), Canada’s Ministry of Health, the Rockefeller Foundation and NIH.
Looking at the individuals who signed the 2013 TAG paper, we see the revolving door of individuals moving between three organisations – the Rockefeller Foundation, GAVI and WHO – and national public health bodies.
Anne Schuchat, who signed on behalf of NCIRD, is currently a member of WHO’s Health Hazards Advisory Group and a member of Stanford University’s Global Emerging Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee. Formerly she was a member of GAVI’s board and GAVI’s Programme and Policy Committee and the Audit and Finance Committee. So, she came from GAVI to become a CDC official as director of NCIRD and then became an advisor to WHO.
Arlene King, who signed on behalf of the Ministry of Health of Canada, was a GAVI Alliance board member then she became the Chief Medical Officer of the Ontario Ministry of Health. So, she moved from GAVI to the Canadian government.
Jeanette Vega, who signed on behalf of the Rockefeller Foundation, was a former director of Rockefellers’ National Chilean Public Health Insurance Agency (FONASA). Previously she was a Director at WHO and then was the Vice Minister of Health in Chile. After leaving the Rockefeller Foundation she became a director ofthe National Chilean Public Health Insurance Agency and later Minister of Social Development. So, she moved from WHO to the Chilean government, then to the Rockefeller Foundation and back to the Chilean government.
Roger Glass, who signed on behalf of NIH’s Fogarty International Centre, received the Albert B. Sabin Gold Medal Award in 2015which is awarded by the Sabin Vaccine Institute founded in 1993to continue the work of developing and promoting vaccines. Sabin was best known for developing the oral polio vaccine. In 1934, Sabin conducted research at the Lister Institute for Preventative Medicine, London, and then joined the Rockefeller Institute University.
In 2017, Rajiv Shahwas elected President of the Rockefeller Foundation. Previously he was a director at the Gates Foundation and then he was USAID Administrator under the Obama Administration.
Global Pandemic PreparednessIn May 2018, WHO and the World Bank formed the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (“GPMB”). In September 2018, the GPMB convened a meeting at WHO in Geneva to discuss key issues on global pandemic preparedness. GPMB had commissioned a study which was spearheaded by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. In September 2019, GPMB published a report ‘Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic’.
The conclusions of the 2019 report included:
The signatories and contributors to the report included HHS’ Rick Bright and Wellcome Trust’s Jeremy Farrar.
Before joining the Rockefeller Institute, Rick Brightwas the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response and the Director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”). He was the “whistle-blower” who fought against hydroxychloroquineas a treatment for Covid. Afterwards, he left government service and is now Chief Executive Officer of the Pandemic Prevention Institute at The Rockefeller Foundation.
To sum up, wealthy organisations and individuals are getting you and your government to pay for and implement private interests through public policies. Policies that are geared towards a pre-determined conclusion that is to the benefit of those wealthy global interests.
Further reading:
Wealthy investors have created funds and foundations which then engage in various funding activities, while also being responsible for assisting politicians to be elected, or placed, into office. Once the political candidates are in office, they authorise funds to these international organisations to engage in studies, research and “collaborative” efforts.
At the same time, the foundations donate to the international organisations which gives the foundations access to and seems to help them steer the organisations toward certain conclusions.
The image below, using a hypothetical structure, illustrates how this network operates.
This vaccine regime structure, as with other shadow government infrastructures, has been built using our money and our elected officials are enabling it. They have weaponised our governments against us.
How do we stop this? One of the solutions is for national governments to stop funding and ban officials’ participation in these international organisations’ activities. And, those officials who have been involved in such activities should submit to a public civilian inquiry.
https://expose-news.com/2022/11/27/shadow-govt-has-built-a-global-vaccine-regime/
The same organisations that have an interest in vaccinations today also had a lot of influence in laying the groundwork decades ago. People tend to think of these large and well-known organisations – such as Rockefeller Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UNICEF; CDC, GAVI, USAID, the World Bank – as independent of each other, but they are not. They are part of a vaccine infrastructure – a global vaccine regime. Or, as Nations in Actiondescribes it, the vaccine shadow government architecture.
The architecture is headed by wealthy investors who have created funds and foundations which then engage in various funding activities, while also being responsible for assisting politicians to be elected, or placed, into office. At the same time, the foundations donate to international organisations giving the foundations access to and enabling them to steer the organisations toward certain conclusions.
In short, wealthy organisations and individuals are getting you and your government to pay for and implement private interests through public policies. Policies that are geared towards a pre-determined conclusion that is to the benefit of those wealthy interests. ... more
Health & Wellness
COVID-19 much less deadly than previously thought, major study finds
Will Jones
The Daily Sceptic
Mon, 17 Oct 2022 12:53 UTC
COVID-19 is much less deadly in the non-elderly population than
previously thought, a major new study of antibody prevalence surveys has
concluded.
The study was led by Dr. John Ioannidis, Professor of Medicine and
Epidemiology at Stanford University, who famously sounded an early
warning on March 17th 2020 with a widely-read article
in Stat News, presciently arguing that "we are making decisions without
reliable data" and "with lockdowns of months, if not years, life
largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely
unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at
stake".
In the new study,
which is currently undergoing peer-review, Prof. Ioannidis and
colleagues found that across 31 national seroprevalence studies in the
pre-vaccination era, the average (median) infection fatality rate of
COVID-19 was estimated to be just 0.035% for people aged 0-59 years and
0.095% for those aged 0-69 years. A further breakdown by age group found
that the average IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years,
0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and
0.501% at 60-69 years.
The study states that it shows a "much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested".
A breakdown by country reveals the wide range of IFR values across different populations.
The
significantly higher values for the top seven suggest some of the
difference may be an artefact of, for example, the way Covid deaths are
counted, particularly where excess death levels are similar. Note also
that the antibody studies datefrom various points during the first year of the pandemic, most of them
prior to the large winter wave of 2020-21, when levels of spread and
numbers of deaths were more varied than later in the pandemic as
subsequent waves caused countries to converge.
The reason some countries had much lower values and some much higher is
not completely clear. The authors suggest that "much of the diversity in
IFR across countries is explained by differences in age structure", as
per the plot below.
However,
the age breakdown by country suggests that the IFR differed for each
age group in each country, casting doubt on that suggestion. (In the
chart below, note the logarithmic scale, and ignore the zig-zag lines,
which are due to small countries having low numbers of deaths.)
Why
are countries seeing differing IFRs even for the same age groups? The
authors suggest a number of explanations, including data artefacts (e.g.
if the number of deaths or seroprevalence are not accurately measured),
presence and severity of comorbidities (for example, obesity affects
42% of the U.S. population, but the proportion of obese adults is only
2% in Vietnam, 4% in India and under 10% in most African countries,
though it affects almost 40% of South African women), the presence of
frail individuals in nursing homes and differences in management,
healthcare, overall societal support and levels of drug problems.
Prof. Ioannidis has previously published a number of papers
estimating COVID-19's IFR using seroprevalence surveys. He and his team
conclude that their new estimates provide a baseline from which to
assess further IFR declines following the widespread use of vaccination,
prior infections and evolution of new variants such as Omicron.
Comment: See also:
Understanding the malinformative nature of pharmaceutical industry propaganda is vital. This article is a good example for analysis. So much of this manipulation of facts, and doublespeak, get blasted at us, that it is worth the time to dissect some of it closely. It helps to know the tricks, so they become easy to spot.
"Stakeholders" have high stakes simultaneously in pharma, insurance, hospitals, retirement funds, media, academia, government policy, and corporations hurt by disability expenses and paying out retirement income for decades per retiree. It is a house of cards because it depends on unaffordable, unsafe, and ineffective medical care.
Pain relief care is ok, but making people healthy is bad for the markets.
===
View this article online: https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2022/05/18/310515.htm
[bold, italics, and comments by DCforum editor]
Study Links Chiropractic Care to Lower Costs, Faster Return to Work
Chiropractors are involved in only a small fraction of workers’ compensation claims for low back pain in states where insurers or employers control the choice of medical provider, but a report released Tuesday suggests that skepticism [insurance company stakeholder worry?] about runaway costs [of medical sickness care] may be unfounded [thanks to chiropractic care].
A study by the Workers’ Compensation Research Institute found that medical care costs less and claimants return to work more quickly when low back pain treatment is provided solely by chiropractors. Costs were also lower when chiropractors provided physical medicine services but other types of clinicians were in charge of evaluation and management, but the difference was not as dramatic.
“This study will be helpful for policymakers and stakeholders who are interested in re-evaluating the role of chiropractors, especially those who have been adopting evidence-based practices and contributing to cost-effective care,” stated WCRI President and Chief Executive Officer John Ruser in a press release. ... more
Evidence based medicine has been corrupted by corporate interests, failed regulation, and commercialisation of academia, argue these authors
The advent of evidence based medicine was a paradigm shift intended to provide a solid scientific foundation for medicine. The validity of this new paradigm, however, depends on reliable data from clinical trials, most of which are conducted by the pharmaceutical industry and reported in the names of senior academics. The release into the public domain of previously confidential pharmaceutical industry documents has given the medical community valuable insight into the degree to which industry sponsored clinical trials are misrepresented.1234 Until this problem is corrected, evidence based medicine will remain an illusion.
The philosophy of critical rationalism, advanced by the philosopher Karl Popper, famously advocated for the integrity of science and its role in an open, democratic society. A science of real integrity would be one in which practitioners are careful not to cling to cherished hypotheses and take seriously the outcome of the most stringent experiments.5 This ideal is, however, threatened by corporations, in which financial interests trump the common good. Medicine is largely dominated by a small number of very large pharmaceutical companies that compete for market share, but are effectively united in their efforts to expanding that market. The short term stimulus to biomedical research because of privatisation has been celebrated by free market champions, but the unintended, long term consequences for medicine have been severe. Scientific progress is thwarted by the ownership of data and knowledge because industry suppresses negative trial results, fails to report adverse events, and does not share raw data with the academic research community. Patients die because of the adverse impact of commercial interests on the research agenda, universities, and regulators.... ... more
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